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Match preview: Nacional - Estudiantes 2009-07-02 (Copa Libertadores)

Big expectations

Nacional managed in their intention to get back from the visit in Argentina with an active scoreline. They got defeated by only 1:0, so the decision about who’s advancing to the Copa Libertadores finals is left for the return leg that will be played at their Centenario. Whole Uruguay is openly following all the events happening before this match. Uruguayan football has lately been set aside, so now there’s an opportunity for them to come back in big fashion, if Nacional records success in Copa Libertadores. First leg was full of rough play, so none of the sides will feature their entire starting lineup from that match. Naciona’s coach Gerardo Pelusso was very bitter watching their Argentinean rivals play. A few of his starters suffered injuries, and it’s still unclear what kind of team will Pelusso compose. Excellent Lodeiro and Medina’s statuses are the most doubtful. To make things worse, defensive midfielder Arismendi got flu, and it’s questionable whether he’ll recover in time. Still, Pelusso is very optimistic announcing a big win. He announced he’ll give a chance to the new regulars Dominguez and Garcia from the first minute. However, Nacional’s coach couldn’t list the exact starting lineup, as he doesn’t want to rush things yet, and wants to make sure which of his players are fully fit. Pelusso expects a great home fan support, and says they could be having the key role in this match. There’s a huge interest for this match in Uruguay, and beside the bad weather, tickets have been sold out in just a few hours. Nacional’s board wanted to additionally strengthen their squad before this match by hiring Uruguay’s national team player Sebastian Abreu, who spent the previous season playing in Greece. Club director Balbi said Abreu wants to come to Nacional, but the decision will be made by the South American football federation. Estudiantes did a similar thing before the first leg, signing veteran Schiavi, so everybody in Nacional is hoping he’ll be able to play in this match already. Everyone in Uruguay is optimistic about their team’s chances, stating they were the better side in the first leg, especially from the moment Veron left the pitch. Since there will be no Veron in the return leg, they expect to outplay their rivals, and by winning the match reach the Copa Libertadores finals.

How will they do without Veron?

Estudiantes won the first leg, but that win was very unconvincing. They celebrated by 1:0, but the win cost them an injury of their best player, Sebastian Veron. The experienced national had to leave the pitch in the second half, and hand over the commanding stick to his countryman and vice-captain Sanchez. Although the injury wasn’t too bad, it’s certain Veron will not start the match in Montevideo. However, coach Alejandro Sabella announced that Veron will be on the bench, so in case of a bad scenario he might enter the game in the 2nd half. Veron had the key role in their successful campaign from this season. All knots in Estudiantes’ play were held by him, and it remains to be seen whether the Argentineans will find the way to make up for his loss. Beside Veron, defender Cellay won’t be on the team either, as he also suffered an injury in the first leg. The Argentineans are ahead of a 90-minute hell on Centenario, and if they want to qualify to the finals, they will have to play above their possibilities. If they manage to score a goal, they will be a step near it. However, that won’t be easy thing to do at all this time. Estudiantes’ lineup could look like this: Mariano Andújar; Juan Manuel Díaz, Rolando Schiavi, Leandro Desábato, Germán Ré; Diego Galván, Rodrigo Braña, Matías Sánchez), Leandro Benítez: Mauro Boselli, Gastón Fernández.

War on the pitch

There has been a real war in the first match. The game was full of rough play and harsh tackles. There are all reasons we can expect a similar rematch, as the fire has only gotten bigger. The stakes in this clash are enormous, and knowing their mentality, the South Americans will again start a war on the green field. None of the sides is too efficient in terms of goal-scoring, especially that won’t be the case when the two defenses will be the main focus of the match. I give slight advantage to the hosts, but still recommend a bet on the under. I expect Estudiantes to completely shut down all the ways towards their goal, and Nacional won’t have an easy time breaking that deadlock. If they even succeed in it, I don’t believe they will do it more than once.

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Prediction:

Tip: Under 2.5
Odd: 1.75
Bookie: 188bet
Stake: 7 /10
Tipster: Mike

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